Impending Oscars

The Oscars, which are coming up very soon, are quite an event in my house. Since the first year a Lord of the Rings movie was a player, myself and my family have watched the whole telecast, start to finish. (My sister and I really get into it and watch all the red carpet lead-in too, but that's because we're slaves to fashion.) I confess, I usually only actually see a handful of the nominees, because frankly summer is my movie season and the fall/winter is Oscar season. If I was in charge of the Academy, District 9 would win Best Picture, Spike Jonze would win Best Director (for Where the Wild Things Are), and Eli Roth wouldn't be allowed to come (although his turn in Inglourious Basterds was better by far than any of his directorial offers, that hack).

That said, here are my Will Win/Should Win for the Big Six:

Best Supporting Actor
Will win/Should Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Why this film has become the darling of the critics, I don't really get - I finally saw it recently, and I thought it had some fun moments but was nothing to write home about. That said, Waltz is absolutely terrifying as the quadri-lingual "Jew Hunter," delivering line after line in a blood chilling, cheerful manner while he's shooting renegade Jewish families in the back. His recognition at the Globes and the love for this film has pretty much sealed the deal for his first Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Should Win: Either Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air, or Mo'Nique, Precious

Yes, Mo'Nique got the Globe, and no, I haven't seen this film, but the clips I've seen of her are pretty much one of the best dramatic performances all year. I'm torn on my should-win vote because of that; I think Kendrick is the best thing to happen to young actresses in a long time, but it's her inexperience and possibility for nomination in the future that's going to keep her out of the winner's seat. Up In The Air is an awards show breeding ground, and rightfully so, and I'm surprised that it didn't show better at the Globes - but I think Farmiga's bitterly charming turn in the film will be too much for the Academy to resist.

Best Actor
Will Win: Collin Firth, A Single Man
Should Win: Liam Neeson, Taken

God, how can you NOT have loved Neeson in Taken? He's got this calm, collected British accent that lulls you into a sense of security while he's kicking ass and taking names. He terrified me and made me want to comfort him all at the same time. Plus, I thought that A Single Man was kinda overrated to begin with, even if Firth was pretty persuasive (also I just kind of love him). But COME ON. TERRORISTS. And LIAM NEESON. The man has played a ninja, a lion who is also Jesus, a convincing step-dad, and now a counter-terrorist. Give him the credit he deserves.

(As a side note, I'm thinking more and more that the Globes are a much more accurate portrayal of current cinema - I think their split between Drama and Comedy/Musical is a little contrived, but really, The Hangover was the funniest thing I saw all year, and I think that popular film deserves more recognition than it gets. After all, people wouldn't and haven't paid to see the truly steaming piles of shit, so why can't we trust the popular vote a little more? And yes, I begrudgingly admit that Avatar gets encompassed by this, too. It simply would not have made as much money as it did if people didn't want to see it, and people do not want to see [generally] crap film.)

Best Actress
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Should Win: Carey Mulligan, An Education

You know who should NOT win this? Or even be nominated for it? Julia Roberts. HFPA, what were you THINKING? Duplicity was a terrible movie.

Continuing: it took me about ten minutes of wavering between Bullock and Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia, because we all know how much the Academy loves biopic portrayals and c'mon, it's MERYL STREEP, but I think they're more likely to pick a serious biopic than a light-hearted family affair. I think that An Education was criminally underseen, and Mulligan's charm and believability turned what could have been an unbearably saccharine and naive character into someone you want to buy a soda and let them know it's all going to be ok, everyone makes mistakes. I hope she makes more films.

Best Director
Will Win: James Cameron, Avatar
Should Win: Spike Jonze, Where The Wild Things Are

Is there anyone left on the planet that doesn't believe Cameron's going to get another turn in the winner's chair? Whether you liked Avatar or not, what Cameron did in terms of world-building was monumentous. And, like it or not, Avatar is going to change the way that movies are made, and I don't mean that story quality will be thrown over for special effects. Film is a visual media and I applaud those who push the boundaries of that media in a significant way. Avatar is also the first non-stop motion film to utilize 3D technology in a way that struck me as integral to the visual structure of the film, rather than a gimmick (I include Up in that, because really Pixar, I couldn't tell the difference). Cameron took an archetypal story and used that pretty simple vehicle for a lavish world, and honestly, I think that if the story had been more complicated, it would have gotten muddled in the immensely complex and visually intricate scenery. So no, I don't begrudge Cameron for using a story we've heard before and telling it will.

Speaking of risk taking, though Jonze's Wild Things was emotionally raw, stunningly sparse, and utilized an untrained child actor to fabulous results. Visually, it's pretty much the polar opposite of Avatar, and as an adaptation, it is nothing short of brilliant. Jonze kept the spirit of Sendak's original twelve lines while making it a full-fledged fable, that was both childishly romantic and breathtakingly nostalgic.

Best Picture
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: District 9

Hasn't it been a fabulous year for science fiction film? Whatever you feel about Avatar, it in combination with District 9 and Star Trek (and the little-talked about Moon) has shoved sci-fi film permanently out of the B-movie realm and into the critically acclaimed mainstream. These three films in one year did for the genre what Lord of the Rings did for fantasy film over the course of three years. At this point in the awards season, Avatar is pretty much the already announced winner for Best Picture, although The Hurt Locker could surprise us all (although I don't think it's likely).

Let me tell you about the tragedy of District 9: it was a summer release. If Peter Jackson could have held on to his producer's perogative for just a few more months, D9 would have been TOTAL Oscar bait. In any other year, Avatar could have been a summer popcorn blockbuster - but timing is everything in cinema, and there is an undeniable bias towards films released after September as far as the Academy is concerned. Which means a powerful, harrowing, meaningful film that left me shaken in my seat won't get any nominations past effect-driven ones. And that's a true tragedy.