Oscar Predictions!

I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the Oscars this year.  We'll see how I do tomorrow!

Best Picture: Lincoln
Ebert is convinced that Argo is taking it home, and after all the reactionary press Ben Affleck has gotten after his snub, he might be right - but tomorrow I think we're looking at a return to traditional Oscar values, and Lincoln simply has more weight on its side.  I think that the combined powers of Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, the historical biopic subject and the epic scope are going to be too much for the Academy to resist.

Best Director: Steven Spielberg
I really don't see any other contenders in this category (not that the other directors don't deserve to be nominated!).  IF Affleck had been nominated, these two categories might be harder to predict - as it is, I think we're looking at a Lincoln-takes-all kind of evening.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
It's the performance of his lifetime.  It's the performance of several lifetimes.  He can't lose.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Her real competition is Jessica Chastain, but I think Zero Dark Thirty is suffering a little on the awards circuit because of how similar it is to The Hurt Locker.  Lawrence has been getting more and better press than Chastain, plus her performance was unforgettable.  Granted, I haven't seen ZD30, and both women are turning into the kind of actresses that change the landscape of film, but I think the scales are tipped just slightly in Lawrence's favor.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
If Lincoln is losing anywhere, it's here - and that's because Django isn't winning any other category (in my opinion).  Tarantino is pushing too hard for the Academy to take him seriously, when his material doesn't stand up to that assertion.  Waltz, however, is becoming a virtuoso that plays in Tarantino's key - if anyone can snag an award for Django, it's him.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
For serious, they should just play the clip of Hathaway singing "I Dreamed A Dream" and let it speak for itself.

Animated Film: Wreck-It Ralph
For the first time in a while I don't think Pixar has a lock on this category.  I waffled hard on this one, because of how much I want ParaNorman to win - unfortunately, too often the Academy plays it conservative with the animated feature, and I think this year Disney's name is going to be too much to resist.  HOWEVER, Wreck-It Ralph was still an excellent movie, and will deserve the award.

Other Awards!

Cinematography: Life of Pi
Costume Design: Mirror Mirror
Film Editing: Argo
Makeup: The Hobbit
Music: Life of Pi
Music/Original Song: Adele, Skyfall
Production Design: Lincoln
Sound Editing: Argo
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Writing/Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Writing/Original Screenplay: Django Unchained

Why I want Hugo to win Best Picture

Let's be real: The Artist is probably going to go all in on Sunday.  Which I'm not pleased about.  I haven't seen all of the Best Picture noms (I'm short War Horse, Midnight in Paris, The Descendants, and Extremely Inconvenient & Incredibly Annoying), but I did see The Artist and I did see Hugo and there's no question to me that Hugo is a superior film and a superior experience.

For one thing, Hugo IS an experience.  Watching The Artist, it felt like a lot of work on my part for not a lot of payoff; I didn't feel like the filmmakers had made the same kind of effort that they were requiring me to make.  Let me try to explain that better: Hugo is a film that I felt asked for effort on my part (mostly it demands an emotional investment) but was also clearly a labor of love and craft.  The Artist demands intellectual effort by virtue of its form, but seems lazy in how it was put together.  Down to the performances (I thought Asa Butterfield and Ben Kingsley both turned out more convincing jobs than Jean Dujardin, no matter how charming he might be) I was more involved, more enraptured, more rewarded by Hugo.

Other wins I want to see tomorrow: Viola Davis for Best Actress, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress, Jonah Hill for Best Supporting Actor, Margin Call for Best Original Screenplay.  I want to see some slammin' dresses on the red carpet, and I want Billy Crystal to pull it out and be awesome as host.  We'll see how it goes!

Oscar Roundup: The Help

It's that time of year that falls between the Oscar nominations being announced, and the telecast airing - that time of year when I frantically scramble to try and see the nominees I haven't had the chance to yet.  This year I have a lot of ground to cover, partially due to my own delinquency in seeing movies and partially due to the seemingly randomness of the nominations.  Of the nine best picture noms, I've already seen Moneyball and Hugo; yesterday, I watched The Help.

I read the book last month because I wanted to be part of the discussion.  I've heard a lot of the controversy and strong feelings surrounding this book (and subsequent movie), and I always like being included.  Having read it, I can say that I both enjoyed it and understand why people are complaining about it.  It's a very self-serving story, and sags a little under the weight of the author's guilt - but it's also a strong story about racial relationships (obviously) and the relationships women form between themselves...and how those get warped and break down when the women involved have very little power to affect their own lives. 

The movie is similar, but gets an extraordinary boost from the actresses.  Every performance is wonderful, from Emma Stone's squeaky wheel Skeeter straining against the claustrophobic confines of her home to Viola Davis' worn down, worn out, compassionate housemaid who continues to give even after she's got nothing left to offer.  The surprising note here was Bryce Dallas Howard, who plays the villain; her Hilly Holbrook is a contemptible character who schemes and back-stabs and plays with the tiny amount of power that society has given her...and ultimately makes you feel for even her, when she gets force-fed some badly needed truth for, you realize, probably the first time in her life.  Davis gives the best performance, but she's the star of the media at the moment so I won't repeat what everyone else is doing - suffice to say, she's as brilliant as people are saying. 

The strength of the performances means that even the bits of the story you want to side-eye (and while I enjoyed the movie, there are a lot of them) are full of emotional honesty and weight.  Getting the story in visual form also helps alleviate the problems the book has with voice.  That is, while I was reading it I was always aware that no matter which character was speaking, I was reading narration that had been written by a white person and thus was subject to white privilege and experience.  Watching it play out on screen means that I don't have that white person narrator between me and Aibileen or me and Minny - it's just their experience.  Clearly there's still the problem of the story's origins, I'm just saying that this mediates that a bit.

Oscar predictions: I haven't seen The Iron Lady, so I can't weigh in on Meryl Streep's performance, but if Viola Davis gets Best Actress she'll definitely have earned it.  And despite having two noms in the Best Supporting Actress category, I hope Jessica Chastain doesn't split the vote enough to take the award away from Octavia Spencer.  Her impeccable comedic timing and sass made for some of the best moments in the film.

I don't think this one has a real shot at Best Picture, and honestly, having seen Hugo I would pick the Scorsese love-letter to film over this one.  But I'm glad it was recognized.

Oscar Rehash, and How I Did on My Predictions

Let's talk about the ceremony, which I didn't find nearly as terrible as most people seemed to. It had its ups and downs, but doesn't it every year? You may remember I made a couple of predictions about how things would go down - let's see how I did.

1. THAT co-hosting was so full of awkward moments that I can't actually count all of them. (Anne Hathaway dances "The Dance of the Brown Duck" (in tap shoes!) while James Franco wears a HORRIFYING body stocking! Franco appears in a...hot pink evening gown and Marilyn Monroe wig! That is a thing that happened.) Add in Anne's hillarible angry song directed at Hugh Jackman and I'm calling this 85% win...but for the lack of real dancing, and no Neil Patrick Harris (WHO SHOULD TOTALLY HOST NEXT YEAR, ACADEMY. TAKE NOTES.)

2. Hathaway wore Valentino on the carpet (maybe because 8 trillion other women were in Marchesa), but went for a total of 7 dress changes. Most of them were actually MUCH better than the Valentino, including a gorgeous gold shag column from Oscar de la Renta. So this one gets a 50% win.

3. NO 127 Hours jokes, AT ALL. I didn't think this was fair, although it may have been because Ben Stiller didn't even come to the show. With all the potshots our hosts took at every other film, though, it did seem like Franco's own film was left out of the fun because of his hosting duties. To which I say: dude was STONED, people. He probably would have laughed, too. 0% win.

4. Hailee Steinfeld did look adorable in her custom fitted Marchesa. I could wax rhapsodic about how much I love this girl, but I'll just say for now that it's ok she didn't win Best Supporting Actress as I look forward to her long and varied movie career (get this girl under contract for The Hunger Games, and do it NOW). I was VERY DISAPPOINT she and The Dude didn't have a red carpet moment (that I saw on E!, anyway). But that's ok, I think they've had those before other shows and they're probably sick of each other by now. Not that Steinfeld would show it, though, because she's SO poised and collected during interviews. 33% win.

5. COLIN FIIIIIIRTH. Helena Bonham Carter's dress looked more like it walked off the set of Sweeney Todd than Alice, and the camera didn't pan to Rush but that was because Firth was too busy being adorable and amazing. There was no bromance shout-out, but I'm tempted to call this a win because of when Firth said he needed to go backstage and dance. 100% win for movies and the world, 33% win for me.

6. I think Andrew Garfield was there? Jesse Eisenberg definitely was, because I asked my family if he had an entire security detail when he arrived on the red carpet. TRENT REZNOR FOR THE WINNNN, I don't CARE how y'all feel about Hans Zimmer (who I love, but seriously, the score for The Social Network was haunting and beautiful and a seamless part of the spectacle onscreen. Reznor deserves this.). I wish we'd gotten that red carpet pose, but oh well. The carpet on the whole was pretty boring. 50% win, because Mara wasn't there and I'm free to speculate that it's because of her Dragon Tattoo getup.

7. 100% win, although this is also 100% lose because my heart really is broken. I just want to watch How To Train Your Dragon over and over and over again.

8. I was honestly shocked that The Wolfman won Best Makeup - usually, when a movie like this gets nominated for something it actually deserves, it loses to the more obvious Oscar bait (I was also surprised by Alice in Wonderland's Art Direction win). It was thrilling to me to see the Academy award truly brilliant work (in the Makeup respect; Wolfman was a good movie, but I would hesitate to call it brilliant). Sadly, Benicio del Toro was not there, lupine-looking or not. 0% win, but a pleasant outcome so I'll take it.

9. Where on Earth was the cast of Inception? Nolan was there, the camera panned to him a couple of times, but I was CHEATED out of Marion Cotillard's dress and Joseph Gordon-Levitt in a suit. Which is a TRAGEDY. Inception did win some big awards, though: Best Cinematography, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing and Best Visual Effects. 0% win for me, but much more win for Inception (and genre film).

10. It's hard to categorize my percentage of win in this case because NO ONE CAME TO THE SHOW. Seriously, I felt like E! was showing me the same 12 people on the red carpet because they had no one else to interview. Four of my predictions for worst dressed didn't even show up, and the fifth (Hilary Swank) looked really, really good in her Marchesa feathered ballgown. Of my five best dressed predictions, only two showed; although Helen Mirren DID look fantastic, and I liked Melissa Leo's dress (although I might be the only one).

Overall I did not do well. But! I had fun watching the show, and now all I want to do is watch movies forever (can The King's Speech come out on DVD now, please?). And really, that's what the Oscars is all about, isn't it?

10 Oscar Predictions!

Not necessarily movie related.

1. Anne Hathaway and James Franco will have no less than five hilariously awkward co-host moments, probably relating to the fact that they're both tremendously beautiful people who aren't used to sharing the limelight. One of these will be a song-and-dance routine, in which Neil Patrick Harris will have a cameo. (Can we please just have him host next year? God, he would be SO GREAT.)

2. Anne Hathaway's dress will be Marchesa on the red carpet, but she will go through at least three costume changes. Probably more - one for every time she's on stage. (I really, really desire this to be true.)

3. There will be at least one 127 Hours joke made, but probably not by Franco. I'm betting on Ben Stiller, who needs something HUGE to top that Na'vi horror show he put on last year. I'm thinking fake blood and a ruined designer suit.

4. Hailee Steinfeld will look adorable, and will win Best Supporting Actress. It will be a fashion victory for all members of the Dakota Fanning School for Starlets. She and Jeff Bridges will probably have an awesome red carpet moment, where he gets to be fatherly and wise and she gets to be endearingly nervous.

5. Colin Firth will win Best Actor. Helena Bonham Carter will not win, but her dress will look like it walked off the set of Alice in Wonderland (which will then win Best Costuming). After his win the camera will pan to Geoffrey Rush, who will then get a shout-out from Firth for their historical bromance.

6. Rooney Mara will not be attending because of her costuming for Dragon Tattoo. Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield will be there, in tremendously adorable slim-cut suits, and (PLEASE GOD) they will pose on the carpet with Trent Reznor (who will then win for Best Original Score, a comprise a replay of what happened when "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" won Best Song for Hustle & Flow).

7. Toy Story 3 will win Best Animated Film and it will break my heart. (Seriously. Pixar must have an entire room for their statuettes by now. How To Train Your Dragon was better, Academy. They were both good, but Dragon was better. Please, please show me that you can be innovative and recognize artistic achievement that's not just a creature of habit. PLEASE.)

8. Benicio del Toro will be in attendance, but The Wolfman will not win Best Makeup (even though it SHOULD, oh my GOD, it was BRILLIANT). He will probably look strikingly like a werewolf.

9. Inception will not win any awards except technical ones, because the Academy has forgotten how to recognize truly brilliant science fiction. Leonardo DiCaprio may not even show up, but Christopher Nolan and Joseph Gordon-Levitt will look dapper and gracious and (hopefully) shame the Academy so that they think harder about their Director nominees next year. Marion Cotillard might get a red carpet moment with Nolan, and I hope she wears a dress like that white mermaid thing she wore when she won for La Vie En Rose.

10. The following women will be fashion disasters and I will love every minute of it: Cameron Diaz, Kristen Stewart (if she gets an invite this year - unless she's presenting, she might not even go), Hilary Swank, Bryce Dallas Howard, and Ellen Page (I want her to look awesome SO BAD, but her history is against her). The following women will look AMAZING: Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Anna Kendrick, and Melissa Leo.