Oscar Predictions!

I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the Oscars this year.  We'll see how I do tomorrow!

Best Picture: Lincoln
Ebert is convinced that Argo is taking it home, and after all the reactionary press Ben Affleck has gotten after his snub, he might be right - but tomorrow I think we're looking at a return to traditional Oscar values, and Lincoln simply has more weight on its side.  I think that the combined powers of Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, the historical biopic subject and the epic scope are going to be too much for the Academy to resist.

Best Director: Steven Spielberg
I really don't see any other contenders in this category (not that the other directors don't deserve to be nominated!).  IF Affleck had been nominated, these two categories might be harder to predict - as it is, I think we're looking at a Lincoln-takes-all kind of evening.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
It's the performance of his lifetime.  It's the performance of several lifetimes.  He can't lose.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Her real competition is Jessica Chastain, but I think Zero Dark Thirty is suffering a little on the awards circuit because of how similar it is to The Hurt Locker.  Lawrence has been getting more and better press than Chastain, plus her performance was unforgettable.  Granted, I haven't seen ZD30, and both women are turning into the kind of actresses that change the landscape of film, but I think the scales are tipped just slightly in Lawrence's favor.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
If Lincoln is losing anywhere, it's here - and that's because Django isn't winning any other category (in my opinion).  Tarantino is pushing too hard for the Academy to take him seriously, when his material doesn't stand up to that assertion.  Waltz, however, is becoming a virtuoso that plays in Tarantino's key - if anyone can snag an award for Django, it's him.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
For serious, they should just play the clip of Hathaway singing "I Dreamed A Dream" and let it speak for itself.

Animated Film: Wreck-It Ralph
For the first time in a while I don't think Pixar has a lock on this category.  I waffled hard on this one, because of how much I want ParaNorman to win - unfortunately, too often the Academy plays it conservative with the animated feature, and I think this year Disney's name is going to be too much to resist.  HOWEVER, Wreck-It Ralph was still an excellent movie, and will deserve the award.

Other Awards!

Cinematography: Life of Pi
Costume Design: Mirror Mirror
Film Editing: Argo
Makeup: The Hobbit
Music: Life of Pi
Music/Original Song: Adele, Skyfall
Production Design: Lincoln
Sound Editing: Argo
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Writing/Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
Writing/Original Screenplay: Django Unchained

10 Oscar Predictions!

Not necessarily movie related.

1. Anne Hathaway and James Franco will have no less than five hilariously awkward co-host moments, probably relating to the fact that they're both tremendously beautiful people who aren't used to sharing the limelight. One of these will be a song-and-dance routine, in which Neil Patrick Harris will have a cameo. (Can we please just have him host next year? God, he would be SO GREAT.)

2. Anne Hathaway's dress will be Marchesa on the red carpet, but she will go through at least three costume changes. Probably more - one for every time she's on stage. (I really, really desire this to be true.)

3. There will be at least one 127 Hours joke made, but probably not by Franco. I'm betting on Ben Stiller, who needs something HUGE to top that Na'vi horror show he put on last year. I'm thinking fake blood and a ruined designer suit.

4. Hailee Steinfeld will look adorable, and will win Best Supporting Actress. It will be a fashion victory for all members of the Dakota Fanning School for Starlets. She and Jeff Bridges will probably have an awesome red carpet moment, where he gets to be fatherly and wise and she gets to be endearingly nervous.

5. Colin Firth will win Best Actor. Helena Bonham Carter will not win, but her dress will look like it walked off the set of Alice in Wonderland (which will then win Best Costuming). After his win the camera will pan to Geoffrey Rush, who will then get a shout-out from Firth for their historical bromance.

6. Rooney Mara will not be attending because of her costuming for Dragon Tattoo. Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield will be there, in tremendously adorable slim-cut suits, and (PLEASE GOD) they will pose on the carpet with Trent Reznor (who will then win for Best Original Score, a comprise a replay of what happened when "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" won Best Song for Hustle & Flow).

7. Toy Story 3 will win Best Animated Film and it will break my heart. (Seriously. Pixar must have an entire room for their statuettes by now. How To Train Your Dragon was better, Academy. They were both good, but Dragon was better. Please, please show me that you can be innovative and recognize artistic achievement that's not just a creature of habit. PLEASE.)

8. Benicio del Toro will be in attendance, but The Wolfman will not win Best Makeup (even though it SHOULD, oh my GOD, it was BRILLIANT). He will probably look strikingly like a werewolf.

9. Inception will not win any awards except technical ones, because the Academy has forgotten how to recognize truly brilliant science fiction. Leonardo DiCaprio may not even show up, but Christopher Nolan and Joseph Gordon-Levitt will look dapper and gracious and (hopefully) shame the Academy so that they think harder about their Director nominees next year. Marion Cotillard might get a red carpet moment with Nolan, and I hope she wears a dress like that white mermaid thing she wore when she won for La Vie En Rose.

10. The following women will be fashion disasters and I will love every minute of it: Cameron Diaz, Kristen Stewart (if she gets an invite this year - unless she's presenting, she might not even go), Hilary Swank, Bryce Dallas Howard, and Ellen Page (I want her to look awesome SO BAD, but her history is against her). The following women will look AMAZING: Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Anna Kendrick, and Melissa Leo.

Vanessa Hudgens: Unexpected Acting Star

Sucker Punch is the best move Vanessa Hudgens could have made for her career. What’s more, I think it’s going to make her much more successful in the long run than her beau Zac Efron.

Ex-Disney princess, former face of High School Musical, and temporary scandale, Hudgens has never registered in my mind as more than, say, Selena Gomez. She’s generically pretty, of average talent, and almost entirely forgettable. I have never found her offensive, but I also don’t go out of my way to watch her in things. In short, up to this film she has been one of a thousand fresh faced Disney starlets, vaguely entertaining and entirely disposable. Her acting resume up until now has included High School Musicals 1-3, something called Bandslam, and a surprising blip early on (Thirteen). Oh, and a bunch of random Disney show guest spots.

Enter Sucker Punch. I know it’s early to be speculating on this film – the trailer has only recently been publicized, and deciphering the plot line is a sticky tangled mess, but you only have to look at the (heavily photoshopped) posters to know that this is so far outside of Hudgens’ established acting zone it’s practically on another planet. She appears in a leather-and-nylon heist-style body suit, with lots of buckles, an awesome pair of goggles, and a gun that’s bigger than I am. She looks dirty. She looks a little scary. And she looks like a badass. (The Ultimate Badass title goes to Jena Malone, who not only looks like she can kill you with her brain in her shot, but can now deadlift 300 pounds as a result from the physical training she did for the film.)

Suffice to say, it’s a long way from Disney. It’s also connected to a director known for his gritty, action-filled noir influenced violence films (300, Watchmen, Dawn of the Dead). AND, to top off that already intriguing cake, she’s surrounded by established and capable actors, including Jon Hamm and Carla Gugino. The true test will be to see how she does in the film, but all in all, it looks like a remarkable set-up and could be her vehicle to a more diverse acting career. And if she proves her chops as an action girl star, we’ve got one more kick-ass chick in Hollywood, and that’s never a bad thing.

In contrast, here’s what Zac Efron has been doing (keep in mind, he’s supposed to be the more talented and more successful star than Hudgens): 17 Again and Charlie St. Cloud. Fluffy, romantic one-notes. He did do a pretty good turn in Hairspray, but since that’s SO closely related to High School Musical, I have a hard time thinking about it in terms of advancing his career.

Go you, Vanessa. Show us how a Disney girl can grow up and be awesome.

Thoughts on 10 Nominations

The Academy is reverting back to ten nominations for Best Picture this year, which will a.) make the show interminably long and b.) make my never-ending rant in defense of summer film pretty much void. And since I secretly love how long the show is, both of these have me cheering the decision.

Entertainment Weekly is pretty sure they've got seven of the ten possible Best Picture nominees nailed down:
Avatar
Up In The Air
Inglourious Basterds
An Education
Up
The Hurt Locker
Precious

I have been torn for years about the existence of the Best Animated Film category, because on the one hand, its presence means that when an animated film is released that is so good it deserves the Best Picture award (Wall-E), I know it won't get nominated because it is MORE LIKELY to win the Best Animated category. So having Up be an almost guaranteed choice for a Best Picture slot is bittersweet - I know it won't win, but I love that it's there, but did we really need ten slots to fill in order for it to get there in the first place?

(On the other hand, I haven't really decided if it would be my personal Best Animated choice, because I liked Fantastic Mr. Fox so very much, so maybe I'm on the fence for no good reason at all.)

So what fills out the rest? (500) Days of Summer, District 9, A Serious Man. (My predictions, not my choice.)

It's interesting that if there were only five slots this year as per usual, I think it's fairly obvious what they would be:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up In The Air
Precious
Inglourious Basterds

I love that this expansion is giving other brilliant films a chance they wouldn't normally have; when I first heard about them opening up the category, I felt overwhelmingly like they'd be shoving stuff in just to fill out the noms. But could it be that the Academy, like myself, thought this was just too good a year for film? Did they realize that, even though only one can win, it would do them good to acknowledge film normally outside of their comfort zone? In a normal year, films like Up, (500) Days of Summer, and even Star Trek wouldn't have gotten anywhere near that award - now there's Oscar buzz all over them. So good on the Academy for diversifying a little, even though I know that my personal choice won't win.